Toby Ord: 10^12x more compute won't lift today's algorithms out of their narrow subregion
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-10-08
Extending his interpolation/extrapolation/hyperpolation trichotomy, philosopher Toby Ord argues that whatever these notions become, they describe a kind of closure of existing ideas under some recombining operation. His verdict on scaling: giving today's algorithms 10^12 times more compute would let them discover a lot, yet they would remain confined to a narrow subregion — a geometric counterpoint to the 'just add compute' path to AGI.
Related event: Philosopher Toby Ord Proposes Three-Way Framework for AI Generalization(2 posts)→
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