Wharton's Mollick: we lack RCTs for the agent era and are missing large effects
emollick · x · 2026-10-08
Ethan Mollick notes that since true agents arrived last fall, there's been a lack of RCT studies like the early chatbot productivity trials — partly newness, partly research design challenges — and he suspects we are missing some large effects. He adds that similar measurements (METR Long Tasks, GDPval) all became saturated earlier this year, as AIs began completing days-long tasks at high quality.
Related event: Wharton Prof Flags Lack of Productivity RCTs in the Agent Era(2 posts)→
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