Samsung Q3: watch whether sales clear ₩200T — it would mean memory pricing runs hotter than contracts show
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-08
Analyst preview of Samsung's Q3 prelim (due within hours): record operating profit above ₩100T is widely expected, but sales are the number to watch.
- Street sales estimates slipped from ₩206T in late September to ₩200T, due to two headwinds:
- Price: TrendForce sees conventional DRAM contract prices up 13-18% this quarter (after 58-63% last quarter); Samsung hasn't beaten TrendForce's range in its last 3 quarters
- Won strength: averaged 1,502/USD in Q2, strengthened to 1,418 in Q3 — the same dollar of chip sales books 5% fewer won
- Volume can't close the gap: Samsung guided DRAM bits up only mid-single digits on very low inventory; clearing ₩200T requires DRAM pricing up 25%+, well above contract forecasts
- Interpretation: above ₩200T means pricing runs hotter than contract data (positive for SK hynix); below means the profit headline hides a slower quarter
- The prelim includes sales and profit only; DRAM price and bit figures arrive with full results on Oct 28
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