Yudkowsky reflects on Christiano's 'slow takeoff': the four-year GDP doubling anchor that failed
repligate · x · 2026-10-08
Reposting Eliezer Yudkowsky's reflection on Paul Christiano's definition of "slow takeoff" as "world GDP doubles over four years before doubling over one year." Yudkowsky argues that Christiano's concrete definition gave followers an anchor to see that today's world doesn't match his model — otherwise they'd just rationalize reality to fit his optimistic "vibes." He criticizes Christiano for overestimating the intelligence and genuine understanding of his cheerleaders, many of whom were just applauding his prestige, and for not treating this failure mode as worth correcting.
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