Nebius up 160% vs CoreWeave's 10%: the AI infrastructure stock divergence explained
Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-10-08
I/O Fund breaks down the stock divergence between AI infrastructure providers Nebius ($NBIS) and CoreWeave ($CRWV):
- Nebius is up 160% in 2026 while CoreWeave is up just over 10% — despite CoreWeave being far larger.
- CoreWeave posted $2.58B Q2 revenue (+112% YoY) with a $104B backlog exiting June, plus over $25B in net new customer commitments signed in early Q3.
- Nebius grew Q2 revenue 454% YoY off a much smaller $582M base ($575M from core AI infrastructure).
- Debt profiles are similar: gross debt to annualized Q2 revenue at 3.7x (Nebius) vs 3.4x (CoreWeave). The key difference is liquidity and debt structure — Nebius holds $8B in cash and has cut net debt.
The author argues the market is pricing in a factor most investors aren't tracking, and the dynamic could flip by 2028.
Related event: GPU Rental Prices Rise Across Generations as Nebius and CoreWeave Diverge(2 posts)→
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