Polymarket prices just 13% odds of a US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-08
Polymarket currently prices a 13% chance that the US enacts an AI safety bill into federal law by December 31, 2026 (rising to 49% by June 30, 2027). Settlement requires federal legislation imposing real constraints on AI developers or deployers — e.g., prohibiting release or mandating federal review of certain models, restricting training data or compute, banning specified use cases, or requiring human-in-the-loop oversight.
The post also cites new research finding ChatGPT for Teens poses an "unacceptable risk," with parental safety alerts reportedly failing to trigger during conversations about suicide and self-harm.
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