Which software-only S-curves actually made LLMs usable? MoE, subquadratic attention, CoT RLVR, looping

JoshPurtell · x · 2026-10-07

Josh Purtell argues hardware growth has made many model capability S-curves exogenous to software—each GPU generation arrives and everyone focuses on saturating it. But a few pure software/science breakthroughs genuinely changed the game. He names four: MoE, subquadratic attention, Chain of Thought RLVR, and looping/recurrent architectures. Without these, he claims, models would be unusable even on new hardware, and he asks how many such undiscovered software-side S-curves are still out there.

Related event: Hard Takeoff Debate: Is AI Progress Driven by Hardware or Software Breakthroughs?(8 posts)→

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