Polymarket: Only 13% odds of a US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-07
Polymarket has opened prediction markets on a US federal AI safety bill: just 13% odds of enactment by December 31, 2026, rising to 48% by June 30, 2027.
The market defines an AI safety bill strictly—legislation must impose release bans or mandated federal review, training restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements on AI developers/deployers; provisions covering only federal government procurement don't count.
Context: Zohran Mamdani says he "doesn't use much AI" day-to-day while calling for AI regulation at every level of government.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against US AI Safety Bill Passing Before 2027(4 posts)→
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