Acemoglu: AI will replace only 5% of jobs in 10 years, adding ~1.5% to GDP
mustafasuleyman · x · 2026-10-06
Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu, in the debut issue of MAI's new magazine The Humanist Review (shared by Mustafa Suleyman), predicts AI will replace only about 5% of jobs over the next decade.
- 52% of Americans worry about AI's impact on their jobs; Acemoglu argues the fear is overblown and is steering how AI gets built. He says we should stop building AI to replace people and start building it to make them better at their jobs.
- AI isn't yet showing up in productivity statistics; most firms using it see no real gains. He expects roughly 1.5% added to GDP over 10 years, not a revolution.
- He draws on electricity's slow adoption: New York and London had power stations by 1881, yet only about half of factories and homes used electricity by the 1920s. AI adoption may be even slower, since companies must reorganize around it.
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