Polymarket odds: only 13% chance US enacts AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-06
Polymarket prices only a 13% chance the US enacts an AI safety bill by December 31, 2026, rising to 48% by June 30, 2027.
Context: NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani called for AI regulation "at every single level" as industry leaders warn about existential risk. Market rules count bans/mandated review, training restrictions, usage restrictions, and human-in-the-loop requirements as qualifying provisions; voluntary submission alone does not.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against US AI Safety Bill Passing Before 2027(4 posts)→
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