Hinton, Bengio co-author RSI paper: automated AI R&D could compress a year of progress into 5 weeks
量子位 · wechat · 2026-10-05
A 22-author paper including Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Andrew Barto and OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki examines whether automating AI R&D triggers an intelligence explosion. Key evidence: AI-written approved code rose from low single digits (Jan 2025) to over 80% (May 2026); Claude's share of autonomously handled R&D work jumped from 1% to 26% in five months. With research returns r estimated at 1.2-1.9, full automation could speed AI progress 10x within 1.5 years. The authors remain cautious: compute, data, real-world timelines and diminishing returns could all stall the loop.
Related event: Hinton, Bengio and 22 Experts Warn on AI Automating AI Research(3 posts)→
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