Ibiden: ABF substrate supply can't keep up as AI silicon area balloons

zephyr_z9 · x · 2026-10-05

FUNDA's deep dive argues Ibiden's (4062 JP) core driver is qualified high-end ABF capacity failing to keep pace with AI silicon area and layer counts.
Intel/AMD server CPU shipments are modeled to grow +36%/+62% in 2027, on platforms with 56–63% larger substrates, so area demand far outpaces units.
GPUs and EMIB-T consume the highest-end capacity: only 12 Rubin units per panel, and just 4 for TPU V9 / Trainium 4.
Supply is fully allocated: tier-1/2 makers are full as of 26Q4, lead times are 48–52 weeks, 2027 capacity grows only 10–15%, and 27Q1 contract renewals open the next pricing step.
Forecasts FY3/27/FY3/28 revenue growth of 35%/30% and EPS of JPY173/JPY267; at 45x FY3/28E PE there's still rerating room.

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