Only 21% of economists think AI's decade-ahead income impact will beat the internet
SpencrGreenberg · x · 2026-10-05
Spencer Greenberg is running a thread of economist survey results arguing that subject-matter expertise doesn't translate into forecasting skill.
- Inflation miss: In June 2021, only 29% of economists agreed US fiscal and monetary policy posed a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation (45% uncertain); US inflation hit a 40-year high in 2022.
- On AI: Asked in 2023 whether AI over the next ten years would have a substantially bigger impact on income growth in the US and Western Europe than the internet had over the prior two decades, just 21% agreed, 13% disagreed, and a striking 66% were uncertain.
The takeaway: even expert consensus on macro trends — including AI's economic impact — is fragmented and uncertain, so treat confident expert predictions with skepticism.
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