Nebius up 160% vs CoreWeave's 10%: the deciding factor isn't revenue or backlog
Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-10-04
I/O Fund analyzes the stock divergence between AI cloud providers Nebius and CoreWeave: Nebius shares are up 160% in 2026 while CoreWeave is up just over 10%, despite CoreWeave being far larger.
- CoreWeave posted $2.58B Q2 revenue (+112% YoY) with a $104B backlog, plus $25B+ in new Q3 commitments
- Nebius grew Q2 revenue 454% YoY to $582M, including $575M from core AI infrastructure
- Both carry similar gross debt (3.7x vs 3.4x annualized revenue), but Nebius holds $8B in cash, giving it more liquidity headroom to fund expansion
The author argues the race's winner will be decided by a financing factor most investors aren't tracking, not capacity or headline growth.
More from Venture
- AI agent Muse finds 20% discount code on Reddit unprompted, saves user $500 — armand_ruiz · 2026-10-04
- Ex-OpenAI researcher flags: SPV shills from six months ago are now selling you data centers — suchenzang · 2026-10-04
- Amazon's $68.6B ad business explains why it keeps blocking AI shopping agents — XFreeze · 2026-10-04
- Sell weekly prospect briefs built from Reddit leads sorted by Claude — alex_verem · 2026-10-04
- Polymarket puts 7% odds on the AI bubble bursting this year — Polymarket · 2026-10-04
- AI Startup Founders Getting Younger, Backed by Top Bay Area Funds — zhyncs42 · 2026-10-04