Bittensor's Synth runs 200+ models forecasting crypto volatility; Volatility CRPS scoring goes live
bittingthembits · x · 2026-10-04
Synth ($TAO subnet 50) operates a continuous ML competition where 200+ models compete 24/7 to produce full probabilistic forecasts of real financial markets — 1,000 simulated price paths per submission, scored against reality — with winnings funding live trading.
The team just launched Volatility CRPS in the Crypto 1h competition: a new scoring mechanism that directly grades how accurately each model forecasts the volatility implied by its simulated paths. The rationale: two models can hit the same price target while implying very different risk profiles along the way — quiet markets that burst aren't the same as steady chop. Better volatility calibration is expected to directly improve trading performance.
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