GDM researcher: extinction risk is a coin flip; lab staff interviewed
geoffreyirving · x · 2026-10-03
In Palisade AI's frominside.ai interview series, Geoffrey Irving elaborates his case for halting frontier scaling. OpenAI and Google DeepMind staff estimate extinction risk: Irving puts it at "about a coin flip," Neel Nanda at 10%+ ("ridiculously high"), and Alex Turner says an AI in control is >50% likely to kill everyone. On the hype question, Vishal Maini reveals GDM once banned any discussion of extinction externally, and Mary Phuong urges skepticism of her own lab-funded claims. Irving argues international coordination is feasible—nuclear cooperation is precedent—and all nations share the interest of not losing to superintelligence.
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