Emad Mostaque predicts Anthropic will be "absolutely smashed" within two years as models commoditize
markjeffrey · x · 2026-10-03
Former Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque predicts that while Anthropic is "a fantastic business" today, it will be "absolutely smashed" within two years.
His reasoning:
- More efficient chips not locked into Nvidia, plus models becoming "good enough" for most tasks, will undercut Anthropic's edge
- Anthropic reportedly derives 85% of revenue from API sales, making it most exposed to commoditization
- He expects all models to be "much of a likeness" by next year, forcing a full pivot of its business model
As personal evidence, he says he went from spending about $5,000 in Anthropic credits last month to barely using his Claude Max subscription.
More from Companies & People
- ALOHA creator quits Stanford PhD for Sunday Robotics; LeRobot's Cadene builds UMA — FinanceYF5 · 2026-10-03
- Survey: 13% of orgs scale AI per original business case, only 24% cut costs 10%+ — krishnan · 2026-10-03
- How employees forced OpenAI's president Brockman to back down on lobbying funding — gwern · 2026-10-03
- Mainstream's Top 100 on AI X ranks Daniela Amodei, Jason Wei, akhaliq and more — firstadopter · 2026-10-03
- Coding/Cybersecurity Agent Researcher to Present SWE-Replay at COLM 2026, Open to Full-Time Roles — LingmingZhang · 2026-10-03
- 60% of the Latest YC Batch Are Using Supabase, Says Garry Tan's Retweet — garrytan · 2026-10-03