Trader: bet on RSI with $SMH, or go "insane" with a levered $SPY long on AGI
menhguin · x · 2026-10-03
- menhguin argues that if you believe in RSI within 2-3 years, $SMH is a solid bid — but its volatility is priced accordingly.
- The bigger lever is a long $SPY: you're really betting semiconductors devour the economy faster than every model expects, "what you take if you're really insane."
- He adds the value-accumulation point applies mainly to software, not hardware: over 90% of chip value goes to incumbents, and there's no OpenAI/Anthropic equivalent in chips and won't be for years.
Related event: Traders Weigh AI Bets: Incumbent Chip Giants Capture Compute Value(2 posts)→
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