Chamath says long-horizon AI tasks simply don't work, while Schmidt bets on long reasoning
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-02
Speaking at Stanford AI Club, Chamath argued bluntly that long-horizon tasks "do not work" and complex problems are not handled well either — no evaluations or 48-hour scripts will convince him. He expects AI to follow the classic hype cycle into a "trough of disillusionment" as failures surface.
Eric Schmidt, in a Blackstone interview, took the opposite bet: if he could invest in only one AI theme, it would be long reasoning — a model that can stay on one problem for hours or days is categorically different from one that answers and stops, and most people haven't priced in that difference.
Related event: Schmidt Bets on Long Reasoning as the One AI Theme, Chamath Disagrees(2 posts)→
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