Morgan Stanley: 3.2T transceivers likely next export-control target, possibly by October
pstAsiatech · x · 2026-10-02
Morgan Stanley, after meeting a senior Washington telecom/FCC/export-control legal team, believes 3.2T optical transceivers would likely be where new restrictions phase in, potentially as soon as October.
- Chinese transceivers may still be imported at 3.2T if 65% of BOM comes from US-based companies
- 3.2T volumes aren't expected to ramp until 2029
- Tickers cited: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, $MTSI
The poster frames this as industrial policy disguised as technology control.
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