HBM to eat 22% of world's DRAM wafers as memory prices triple in six months
aronchick · x · 2026-10-02
- Core data: HBM will consume 22% of global DRAM wafer starts by end of 2026 (up from 18% a year earlier) while yielding only 9% of the bits, since each HBM bit eats 3-4x the wafer area
- Price surge: Conventional DRAM contract prices rose 93-98% in Q1 alone, with TrendForce forecasting another 58-63% in Q2 — roughly tripling in six months
- Argument: Using the "shortest stave in the barrel" metaphor, the piece argues the AI industry spent two years solving for GPUs, then power, but memory was always going to be the limiting reagent — like Liebig's law of the minimum, output is capped by the scarcest resource
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