Tessara postmortem: Micron beat our threshold but our model overshot by $1.9B
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-01
Quant research firm Tessara published its Micron FY2026 Q4 postmortem: its 80%-probability call that revenue would exceed the Street-high $52.08B was directionally right ($54.23B reported), yet the model's $56.16B base case overshot by $1.93B. Key lessons: a correct call doesn't mean correct assumptions — pricing upside, mix, shipments and timing must be reconciled. Next test is profitability of scarce capacity as 2027 HBM prices rise.
Related event: Analysts review Micron forecast: right direction, $1.9B overshoot(2 posts)→
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