Micron beat the call but the model was $1.9B off: an analyst's post-earnings postmortem
tengyanAI · x · 2026-10-01
tengyanAI reviews his Micron earnings call prediction: the model put 80% probability on revenue above $52B with a central estimate of $54B (full model $56B), and Micron reported $54.2B — directionally right but $1.9B too high. He stresses the classic trap of "being right for the wrong reasons" and lists what to check: overestimated pricing upside, double-counting items already in guidance, or misreading shipments and mix. He plans to apply the same readthrough to other memory companies reporting in coming weeks, using the Tessara research workspace.
Related event: Analysts review Micron forecast: right direction, $1.9B overshoot(2 posts)→
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