a16z's State of Markets II: agents burn 5x more tokens than humans, up 14x since February
srimisra · x · 2026-10-01
a16z partner David George released State of Markets II, 100+ charts covering tech and equity markets in H1 2026:
- Humans are now the minority AI user: agents burn roughly 5x the tokens humans do, up 14x since February — prompting the framing that Monthly Active Users will give way to Monthly Active Agents.
- Tech is the everything cycle: tech has contributed 76% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 (as of late August), replacing durable goods as the defining force of the cycle.
- Bits to atoms: the year's dominant rotation within tech is from software toward hardware.
The report is a key dataset for tracking AI commercialization and capital-market dynamics.
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