Polymarket prices 26% odds a US state enacts a data center moratorium by 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-01
Polymarket has listed a prediction market on whether any US state enacts a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026, currently priced at 26%.
Key rules:
- A qualifying moratorium is state legislation that expressly bars, suspends, or pauses approval, permitting, construction, grid connection, or operation of new data centers; suspending tax incentives alone doesn't count, nor does local-government legislation.
- Laws targeting data centers above a power, water, or compute threshold qualify, even without the word "moratorium."
- Settlement requires the bill signed into law; later legal challenges don't affect settlement.
A parallel market runs through 2027. The market reflects rising regulatory pressure on data center expansion over power and water concerns — a useful sentiment gauge for AI compute infrastructure policy.
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