Polymarket odds: only 5% chance US regulates AI by year-end

Polymarket · x · 2026-10-01

Polymarket gives just a 5% chance the U.S. regulates AI by end of year. Related markets price a federal AI Safety Bill at 47% by June 2027 and 16% by end of 2026. Market rules define qualifying legislation as including release bans/mandated review, training or compute caps, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements. Separately, OpenAI president Greg Brockman canceled a planned $25 million second donation to an AI super PAC, telling employees the group had become a 'distraction' for the company.

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