Verifying all of nixpkgs would cost ~$400M, Theorem study estimates
ChrSzegedy · x · 2026-10-01
Theorem researchers published a back-of-envelope study on what it would cost to formally verify all software, using the nixpkgs bootstrap chain as a blueprint.
- $400M: all of nixpkgs in 5 years on a $100M/yr budget, assuming AI capability keeps doubling every 8 months
- $134M: 95% of machine code verified by end of 2027, if verification speeds up 4×
- Program size is heavy-tailed: median binary 30 KB, and verifying just 9 MB covers dependencies of 2/3 of all code
- Verifying Linux + Firecracker would cost $1M
The team argues verification should happen at the binary level on real production systems (glibc, OpenSSL, curl), with human review scaling with behavioral complexity, not code volume. Global cybercrime damages are estimated at $500B/yr, dwarfing the cost.
Related event: Study Estimates Verifying All of nixpkgs Would Cost Hundreds of Millions(2 posts)→
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