HBM to hit $100B by 2027, memory supply crunch may last through 2028
Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-09-30
I/O Fund analyst Beth Kindig argues the AI memory cycle is different this time.
- HBM has grown from a $4B market in 2023 to $34.6B in 2025, with Micron projecting $100B by 2027; Micron and SK Hynix are up 500% and 400% in a year.
- Inference workloads and rising KV cache demands are pushing supply constraints beyond HBM into conventional DRAM and NAND, with new capacity possibly not arriving until 2028.
- This breaks the classic memory cycle pattern where supply catching up marks the top.
- Still, revenue growth is cooling as suppliers sign long-term agreements, creating an unusual setup: tight cycle but decelerating reported growth.
- SCA pricing could range from $10-12 per GB at the floor to mid-$20s, letting Micron keep strong margins.
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