AI Safety Researcher Debunks 'Small Circle' Claims With a Base-Rate Argument
BlancheMinerva · x · 2026-09-30
Responding to accusations about an insular AI safety social scene, six-year veteran Blanche Minerva offers a base-rate illustration: if group A has 100 people, group B has 5, and they share 4 members, B looks overwhelmingly like A from inside B — while almost nobody in A is actually in B.
She says she has never spoken with Aella or Nate or attended any such events, and the same is true for the vast majority of people she knows in the field — the apparent tight-knit circle is an artifact of observation angle, not the field's reality.
Related event: AI safety researcher debunks SlutCon entry rumor, then softens stance(9 posts)→
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