Apodex Debuts at #1 on ProphetArena AI Forecasting Benchmark With 0.0897 Brier Score, Open-Sourced
SimonShaoleiDu · x · 2026-09-30
Apodex entered the ProphetArena AI forecasting leaderboard for the first time and took #1. ProphetArena is described as one of the most influential live AI forecasting benchmarks, covered by The Atlantic and Yahoo Finance, with every frontier model on the board including Gemini, Claude, GPT, Grok, DeepSeek, and Kimi.
- Scoring uses the Brier score, which rewards calibrated confidence rather than just correctness
- Apodex posted 0.0897, ahead of all frontier models
- The team open-sourced both the model and agent on Hugging Face
Related event: Apodex Tops ProphetArena Leaderboard on Debut, Beating Frontier LLMs(2 posts)→
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