Oracle's 30-year spread widens to +180bp as Project Jupiter power woes trigger force majeure

julsimon · x · 2026-09-29

julsimon reconstructs Oracle's power crisis at Project Jupiter (the 2.45GW Stargate campus in New Mexico) from public filings:

Credit signals first: Oracle's 30-year Treasury spread widened from +122bp in Jan 2025 to +180bp in Feb 2026. S&P already downgraded Oracle to BBB- (one notch above junk), counts $260bn of lease commitments as debt, projects mid-4x leverage in FY2027, and may cut again above 4.5x.
The "act of God" wasn't: NM's land office rejected the gas pipeline in March, Oracle pivoted to fuel cells in April while claiming all energy costs, its June annual report admitted challenges securing reliable power, and in July the federal regulator moved the pipeline to a full application (deadline Dec 3). Oracle only sent the force majeure notice on Sept 24 — three months after the risk appeared in its own annual report.
Bigger exposure ahead: the latest 10-Q lists $288bn of data-center leases not yet commenced, each 15-19 years.

Takeaway: a force majeure notice can protect a contract but not a credit rating — lenders should ask whether it excludes tenant-disclosed risks and who bears the power obligation.

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Oracle's 30-year spread widens to +180bp as Project Jupiter power woes trigger force majeure

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