Cost math: Meta Muse would run $51 per user, making 'free for 4B users' a steep climb

bookwormengr · x · 2026-09-29

The author built an interactive GPU/CPU cost calculator for Meta Muse. TL;DR: at 15 min of daily use and 10M tokens/day (easy in an agentic world), it costs $51 per user, and Meta would need $70 per user to keep current margins — a steep task for a free product. Baselines come from SemiAnalysis (InferenceX, AgentX), DeepSeek DSec, AWS pricing and Meta results. The author predicted Muse has a small CPU component (4-8B) and a large GPU component (201B), and explains CPU oversubscription: each sandbox can have 2-4 cores but average utilization is under 5%, so one physical core can support 25 effective sandbox cores — the right formula is not 'per-sandbox power × concurrent users'. All parameters are adjustable in the calculator.

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