Polymarket puts 11% odds on US passing an AI safety bill this year
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-29
A Polymarket prediction market currently gives only an 11% chance of the US enacting an AI safety bill by end of 2025, 16% by end of 2026, and 47% by June 2027.
- Market rules count any federal law with provisions like release bans or mandatory federal review, training/compute restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements
- The thread also notes Sen. John Kennedy, 74, says he regularly uses a "special Senate version" of ChatGPT
Related event: Prediction Markets Bet Against Near-Term US AI Safety Legislation(3 posts)→
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