Kalshi weather traders beat top meteorological models in 6 of 7 cities, by 10%
nima_owji · x · 2026-09-29
A new paper by Alexander W. Crosier on Kalshi's next-day weather markets finds traders beat the National Blend of Models (NBM) in 6 of 7 cities studied, outperforming it by 10% a day ahead, and beating a weighted blend of public forecasts at every tested horizon. The result showcases how price discovery on open exchanges produces useful information for weather-dependent decisions in farming, flights, and energy.
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