Polymarket Puts Just ~16% Odds on a US AI Safety Bill by End of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-29
On Polymarket, contracts for a US AI safety bill have odds of about 16% by December 31, 2026 and 47% by June 30, 2027. The market comes as Florida's Attorney General calls AI "the greatest public nuisance ever created by the hand of man."
The market defines an AI safety bill broadly: any legislation banning or mandating federal review of models above a capability threshold, restricting training data/compute, limiting deployment use cases, or requiring human-in-the-loop oversight. Voluntary submission to review alone doesn't qualify.
Related event: Prediction Markets Bet Against Near-Term US AI Safety Legislation(3 posts)→
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