30,000-word report: DUVi lithography exports will decide US-China AI chip race over the next decade
fiiiiiist · x · 2026-09-29
techstatecraft published a 30,000-word report modeling how ASML DUV immersion (DUVi) export policy shapes AI chip production. Key findings: China needs DUVi to make AI chips but is unlikely to commercialize its own lithography at scale until the mid-2030s, giving the US and allies unique leverage; yet that leverage is being given away by allowing imports of DUVi systems capable of building Huawei's AI chips, which China has aggressively stockpiled. The report argues DUVi export policy matters more than AI chip export controls for the decade ahead.
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