Investor laments hyper-consensus VC era: $50-100B exit bar narrows fundable ideas to a handful

arian_ghashghai · x · 2026-09-29

Investor arianghashghai quotes peer milesgr on funds claiming to back pre-seed founders yet asking about revenue first, and argues VC is at peak consensus: capital concentrates into fewer companies, and a 50-100B exit bar shrinks the idea space — 'physical AI' is touted as the biggest opportunity ever, yet only robot brains, general-purpose hardware, and the training-data problem count as backable. Founders increasingly tailor ideas to VC allocation demands. milesgr defends the practice: founders are chronically over-optimistic and slip deadlines, so revenue is the easiest proof of delivery; pre-revenue still works with a real track record or B2B pilots.

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