Memory price forecasts diverge 25+ points: Jefferies sees 40-50% Q3 surge vs TrendForce 13-18%
Beth_Kindig · x · 2026-09-28
Year-end memory price estimates disagree by more than 25 points: Jefferies expects Q3 prices up 40-50% QoQ and another 30-40% in Q4, while TrendForce forecasts far milder 13-18% QoQ for DRAM and 10-15% for NAND.
Beth Kindig of I/O Fund argues this AI memory cycle may break the historical pattern:
- HBM boom: the market grew from $4B in 2023 to $34.6B in 2025, with Micron projecting $100B by 2027; SK Hynix and Micron shares are up 400% and 500% in a year.
- Demand spillover: inference workloads and KV cache are pushing constraints beyond HBM into conventional DRAM and NAND, with new capacity possibly not arriving until 2028.
- Altered cycle shape: major suppliers expect demand to stay above capacity for years rather than peaking as supply catches up.
- Caveat: growth is cooling as memory vendors sign long-term agreements, creating a rare setup of tight cycles but decelerating reported growth.
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