New NBER Paper Finds No Evidence of AI-Driven Unemployment Among Recent College Grads
emollick · x · 2026-09-28
A new NBER working paper tests the claim that AI is driving up unemployment among recent college graduates and finds no supporting evidence.
- Using an agnostic approach to treatment timing, the authors find unemployment did not spike in summer 2026 relative to prior summers, nor rise significantly versus older graduates or young workers without degrees.
- The paper offers the first analysis of an expanded unemployment definition including those reporting "wanting a job" — which adds nearly two percentage points to recent-grad unemployment — and still finds no statistically significant increase in summer 2026.
The result directly contradicts earlier research suggesting AI is eroding entry-level white-collar jobs, making it a key counterpoint in the AI-labor debate.
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