AI costs fell ~30,000-fold in four years, faster than any technology in history
rvp · x · 2026-09-28
Citing Epoch AI research by Luke Emberson and David Roodman: on an equivalent-intelligence basis, AI prices have dropped 47% per quarter since 2023 — 13x per year, nearly 30,000-fold over four years.
- AI is getting cheaper 4x faster than DNA sequencing, 6x faster than Moore's Law-era compute, 18x faster than lithium-ion batteries, and 54x faster than early electricity
- Since ChatGPT 3.5, usage has shifted to audio, images, video and multi-step agentic tasks — more compute-intensive, yet prices keep plummeting
- Key takeaway: don't build strategy around today's model prices; break-even applications today may turn positive-ROI next quarter
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