Optics is early, HBM still sold out: why the DRAM-to-optics trade is premature
demian_ai · x · 2026-09-28
The author corrects the 'value shifting from DRAM to optics' thesis: intra-rack GPU links still use copper, and optics only becomes necessary when gluing 8 racks into one 'brain' — so CPO payoffs mostly land in 2027–28. Memory's share can shrink but HBM remains sold out, with NVIDIA stretching scarce HBM across more chips. $LITE and $COHR have already re-rated (Lumentum 43x next year's earnings); the viral chart conflated early optics with persistent memory scarcity.
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