Banks price orbital compute at $165-180B per GW; new model says $68B by 2028
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-09-27
Cost estimates for a gigawatt of SPCX orbital compute diverge wildly: Bank of America says $165B, Wood Mackenzie $170B, BNP Paribas puts launch alone above $100B. The author's model pegs all-in cost at $68B, falling to $43B by 2035 — a $100B/GW gap. The crux is timing: banks quote today's launch prices for deployments that land around 2028, when launch is the fastest-falling input in the stack. An interactive assumptions model is linked.
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