Chamath: Anthropic IPO regulatory risk could halve valuation to about $1T

gaganghotra_ · x · 2026-09-26

Chamath argues regulatory risk will force Anthropic's IPO to clear well below expectations. Even at a $100B run rate that could imply a $2T market cap, heavy S-1 disclosures will create a much larger margin of safety — he bets the buyer's edge sits around +/- $1T, with Anthropic still raising $200B.

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