Commentator goes 'full doomer': GPUs depreciate in 2-3 years, AI bubble may end in depression
petetrainor · x · 2026-09-26
Jim Stewartson says he is now 'full doomer' — not because chatbots won't get smarter, but because the entire economy has bet on the sci-fi story that they will.
- Key difference from past bubbles: railroad-era bubbles left physical infrastructure that added to GDP for decades; this time the bulk of spending is GPUs, which depreciate rapidly after 2-3 years. 'Data centers aren't railroad tracks; they are temporary money furnaces.'
- Conclusion: he sees no way out without a great depression, calling it 'the most absurd mass psychosis in human history'
An extreme strand of AI-bubble skepticism — it overlooks long-term software and capability value, but the GPU depreciation contrast is a substantive argument worth debating.
More from AGI Musings
- Juan Benet on vibe coding: ship first, optimize later — models now do real engineering — juanbenet · 2026-09-26
- Sherry Turkle on chatbots as objects of emotional attachment and the risks of grieftech — PeterBowdenLive · 2026-09-26
- ResolVI models measurement errors to fix single-cell RNA data, cutting false signals from 14.8% to under 0.01% — bravo_abad · 2026-09-26
- Daniel Lemire: AI can now write theses, so what is a PhD worth? — lemire · 2026-09-26
- Unsafe AI is less useful: safety is a prerequisite for faster adoption — mchorowitz · 2026-09-26
- Sriram Krishnan says DHH's AI speech for engineers will 'be seen as prophetic' — rseroter · 2026-09-26