Goldman: AI drives nearly half of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026, turns drag by 2028
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-09-26
A new Goldman Sachs research report finds that almost half of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026 comes from AI investment, with the largest US hyperscalers on track to spend $800 billion in capex this year — up 94% over 2025.
However, AI investment is expected to transition from an earnings tailwind this year to a marginal drag in 2028. The culprit is depreciation: equipment keeps generating charges even as capex growth slows, squeezing the earnings lift from the buildout. From there, the real test is whether AI delivers enough productivity gains to take over.
Other points: AI-era memory economics run far above normal at roughly 80% gross margins — more than 2× historical levels — a boost Goldman expects to fade. Total hyperscaler capex is projected at $1.2 trillion in 2027 and $1.4 trillion in 2028.
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