CESifo working paper contradicts Stanford: no AI-driven displacement of recent grads yet
Ars Technica AI · rss · 2026-09-26
A new CESifo working paper by economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu pushes back on the recent Stanford study that found entry-level employment in "AI-impacted" occupations lagging. Its blunt conclusion: "there is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels."
- The researchers focus on recent graduates because labor demand shifts typically show up first as reduced hiring, not layoffs
- They acknowledge 2026 grads may face higher risk: a Census survey shows a sharp recent rise in firms "replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI," alongside broad increases in AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use over the past 12 months
With two credible studies reaching opposite conclusions, the AI impact on entry-level jobs remains an open empirical question worth tracking.
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