Sergey Karayev: GPT-2, ChatGPT's 100M users, and Opus 4.5 — each 3 years a new era
sergeykarayev · x · 2026-09-26
Former Tesla AI director Sergey Karayev mapped AI progress in three-year leaps: end of 2019, GPT-2 weights (1.5B params) released; end of 2022, ChatGPT topped 100M monthly users; end of 2025, millions of developers used Opus 4.5 in Claude Code and realized the world had changed. "End of 2028 is hard to imagine," he wrote, implying the next leap will defy prediction.
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