P(Doom) is flawed: doom probability depends on society's reaction function
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-09-26
Endorsing a point from binarybits, NathanpmYoung argues P(Doom) is a flawed construct because it hinges on society's reaction function: P(Doom | status quo AI policy) is likely far higher than P(Doom | decisive government action), and the probability of decisive action at any moment depends partly on people's current P(Doom) — a self-referential dynamic that undermines any single doom number.
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