P(Doom) conflates two questions: is AI dangerous, and can humans respond?
binarybits · x · 2026-09-25
- Timothy Lee argues "what's your P(Doom)?" differs from "do you think AI poses existential risks?"
- P(Doom) bundles two questions that should be considered separately: (1) are advanced AI models potentially dangerous, and (2) are humans likely to respond effectively to neutralize the threat?
- Question (2)—the human response—is often neglected, meaning doom probabilities embed institutional pessimism/optimism as much as technical risk.
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