P(Doom) is flawed: doom probability depends on society's reaction function
binarybits · x · 2026-09-25
- .binarybits argues P(Doom) as a construct has a big problem: it depends on society's reaction function.
- P(Doom | status quo AI policy) is likely much higher than P(Doom | governments take decisive action).
- At any point in time, P(decisive action) itself partly depends on people's P(Doom), creating a self-referential feedback loop.
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